Brazil as a World Power

For generations, Brazilian leaders have dreamed of their country occupying a central role on the world stage. As the fifth-most populous country in the world and the leader of Latin America, Brazil has long been poised to emerge as a major power in international politics. Yet every time over the last century that an economic boom signaled that the country’s inevitable rise was finally occurring, a subsequent bust shattered the nation’s confidence and led its citizens to fear that they were destined to remain forever on the “periphery” of world power. This historical pattern led to a famous phrase among locals: “Brazil is the country of the future, and it always will be.” Will this time be different? Does Brazil’s rise mark a permanent transition in the world order, or is it simply an ephemeral triumph resulting from a commodity supercycle fueled by China’s industrialization? Despite the country’s weakening economic position, I believe it is clear that Brazil has been setting itself up to become a major world power for decades to come. Brazil’s rise will not be reversed any time soon.

The clearest sign of Brazil’s emerging influence on the world stage is its alignment with the BRICS nations—Russia, China, India and South Africa—that are rapidly reshaping the global order and rivaling the West for influence. With the West expected to enter a long period of stagnation due to its aging populations and burgeoning debt, the world is increasingly looking to the BRICS to serve as the main engine of global economic growth. The importance of these countries is clear when one looks at recent trends in world GDP:

(Source: The Economist)

Brazil has been eager to play up its partnerships with these nations as it sees alliances with these major emerging economies to be pivotal in helping it gain influence internationally. The shift in power away from the US and Europe and toward emerging economies was accelerated dramatically by the 2008 financial crisis, and the BRICS became a household term almost overnight. The countries now hold annual summits together and confer regularly before important decisions (such as selecting a new World Bank president and providing new credit for the IMF). The BRICS countries have been consolidating these new alliances, with Brazil and China recently executing a currency swap and updating their relations to an official “strategic partnership”. Even India and China, historic rivals in Asia, have been working to improve their relations to fortify the BRICS alliance.

Of course, the BRICS grouping is in many ways a very uneven alliance. China is clearly the dominant power in the bloc, as its industrialization and demand for commodities has pulled the other emerging countries along. South Africa is tiny in comparison to the others, and was mainly included in the group due to its symbolic importance as the “gateway to Africa.” But despite these inequalities, the BRICS alliance is very useful for all parties involved. China is able to gain important allies that it may need in any future confrontations with the West, while Brazil and the others are able to latch onto China’s growing economic and political clout to enhance their own international reputations. The BRICS bloc, therefore, looks set to become a permanent fixture in international politics and represents the most serious challenge to Western hegemony since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Aside from its role within the BRICS, Brazil has been eagerly forming alliances with other major emerging economies. In addition to promoting Latin American integration and enhanced ties with Africa, policymakers in Brasília have been deepening partnerships in the Middle East, especially with the region`s most prominent emerging power, Turkey. The two countries have been developing a defense partnership for several years now, are cooperating increasingly on energy issues (especially in offshore oil drilling), and have worked together on several major diplomatic initiatives, most notably a failed attempt to resolve the Iranian nuclear impasse. Brazil has also been active in Eastern Europe, where just last week Ms. Rousseff signed a new economic cooperation agreement with Bulgaria. By creating partnerships with important countries in regions all over the world, Brazil is quickly solidifying its role as a truly global actor.

As I mentioned in a recent post, Brazil has been perhaps the most vocal country calling for reform of major international institutions. It was one of the major advocates for establishing the G-20 to replace the G-7 as a forum for international economic cooperation in the wake of the 2008 crisis. It has repeatedly argued for an overhaul of the way IMF voting shares are distributed, and threatened to withhold funding for the organization until a clear path for reform has been articulated. It has also criticized the structure of the World Bank and was the only major country to vote for the emerging market candidate over the US nominee for president earlier this year, after a failed attempt to convince its BRICS counterparts to unite in challenging the West. Perhaps most importantly, Brazil has been highly critical of the structure of the UN Security Council. Along with India, Germany and Japan, it comprises the so-called “G-4” countries that have long angled for major reforms that will grant them permanent seats at the table. On this last issue, however, Brazil’s greatest enemy may not be the entrenched Western powers but rather the “Coffee Club” of second-tier world powers that have blocked Security Council reform out of fear of being permanently shut out of decision-making circles. In this respect, the greatest obstacle to Brazil gaining a permanent seat is not the U.S. but rather Mexico, Colombia and Argentina, the three countries most fearful of Brazilian hegemony in Latin America.

Despite its success in building global alliances and pushing for reform of international institutions, Brazil is often criticized in the West for failing to articulate a coherent vision for a new world order. President Lula was seen as a naïve novice whose diplomatic initiatives across the globe could be summed up by the simple strategy of trying to be friends with everyone at once. The fiasco of the failed Iran nuclear deal significantly hurt Brazil’s standing in the West, and the inability to clarify positions on the revolutions in Libya and Syria has eroded confidence that policymakers in Brasilia are ready to participate constructively on the most complex foreign policy issues of the day.

Yet these criticisms are in many ways unfair. As a new kid on the block unaccustomed to the paradoxes of international governance, Brazil has been undergoing a steady maturation process in its foreign policy. While Lula was focused on building partnerships across the world and solidifying Brazil’s international presence, Ms. Rousseff has taken more pragmatic positions, distancing herself from rogue leaders such as Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran. She has also advanced a new principle of international military intervention known as “responsibility while protecting”, meant to supplement the UN’s “responsibility to protect” with a focus on limiting collateral damage and civilian casualties. In many ways, Brazil is establishing itself as a potential mediator to bridge the diplomatic gap between the West and the emerging powers in the East.

Yes, at times Brazil has been too quick to criticize the West without proposing constructive alternatives to prevent civilian bloodshed. But as the country’s international profile grows, it will inevitably be forced to make tougher decisions and propose new paths forward. This is not so different from the U.S. in the early 20th century. At the time, American leadership espoused non-intervention across the world and the establishment of trade relations without preconditions. The U.S. was thus seen as the alternative power to the colonialists in Europe, which helped it to build alliances with distant nations such as Saudi Arabia and Iran. A similar approach can now be seen in the way in which rising powers such as Brazil and China are approaching their new global responsibilities. Over time, they too will be forced to participate more actively and articulate a clearer vision of the world they want to create. Changes in foreign policy following the turnover from President Lula to President Rousseff show that Brazil’s maturation in this regard is already well under way.

Despite economic difficulties caused by the recent slowdown in the world economy, Brazil’s permanent arrival on the world stage appears more certain than ever. This is most readily apparent in the endless stream of international media coverage of the country. Nearly every day, a major U.S. media outlet runs a new story about Brazil focused on the nation’s ongoing transformation. As the host of numerous major conferences and events (such as the Rio+20 summit last week), Brazil has greatly enhanced its international profile. São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro have emerged as two of the most dynamic urban centers in the world, attracting immigrants and visitors from across the globe. With a booming consumer market, a bevy of natural resource wealth, and a stable, pluralistic democracy, Brazil has too many advantages to be ignored. Even if the country’s economy ends up stalling for an extended period of time, its rise as a world power looks likely to be one of the major developments of the 21st century.