The 2012 Municipal Elections in Review

In an earlier text, I gave a broad outline of Brazil’s political history and current electoral landscape in the run-up to this year’s municipal elections. With the final results now tallied, all eyes are turning to the transition process and, perhaps more importantly, the 2014 national elections. In this post, I will give a brief overview of the election results and explain what they could mean for the country’s future. I will not provide much background information here, so those who want to know more should consult my previous article. 

The Results

By far, the most important race of this election cycle was in São Paulo, where former presidential candidate for the opposition Social Democrats (PSDB) and de facto party leader José Serra was bidding to regain his previous position as mayor of the country’s largest city. Mr. Serra’s principal challenger was President Lula’s hand-picked candidate from the ruling Workers’ Party (PT), former education minister Fernando Haddad. The contest represented a marquee matchup between Brazil’s two largest parties and received an enormous amount of coverage in the press.

Perhaps the most surprising aspect of the campaign was the unexpected rise of Celso Russomanno, a third-party candidate with a popular consumer advocacy TV show who was buoyed by support from evangelical groups. For most of the campaign season, Mr. Russomanno led by double digits in the polls, and his sudden rise was seen by many as a sign of local frustration with the PSDB-PT duopoly of power. Yet as the election neared, his popularity flagged amid a bevy of attacks from his opponents and the superiority of their well-funded campaign machines. Mr. Serra and Mr. Haddad advanced to a run-off, with Mr. Russomanno finishing in third. Mr. Haddad went on to win a decisive double-digit victory over Mr. Serra, a dramatic triumph for the ruling party that cemented its political dominance while probably providing the nail in the coffin of Mr. Serra’s political career.

Elsewhere in Brazil, the PT was not so successful. In the second-most high profile contest of the campaign, the incumbent mayor of Belo Horizonte, Marcio Lacerda, won a commanding double-digit victory over the PT candidate, former mayor and national minister Patrus Ananias. Mr. Ananias’ candidacy had been planned by President Rousseff and President Lula, and the race was considered to have major national implications as Mr. Lacerda had the backing of Aecio Neves, a likely presidential contender for the PSDB in 2014. In the three most important cities of the Northeast, a PT bastion, the ruling party’s candidates failed to secure victory. The right-wing Democrats, a traditional ally of the PSDB, won in Salvador, while the prefectures of Fortaleza and Recife were captured by the Socialist Party (PSB), led by the popular governor of Pernambuco and another possible presidential candidate, Eduardo Campos. The PSDB was also able to hang on to the two most important cities in the North, Manaus and Belem.

Overall, it is difficult to point to clear winners and losers from this election cycle. Many local commentators point to the total number of prefectures won or the total value of municipal budgets in order to determine which party now claims control over the most powerful local political machines. But overall, in terms of implications for 2014, the contest essentially played to a draw. Perhaps the most notable result was the rise of the Socialist Party as a new force in national politics. This helped to dramatically increase Mr. Campos’ profile and increase speculation about a presidential run (see this recent piece in The Economist). Mr. Campos may now be the most talked-about politician in Brazil, as everyone wonders aloud about his intentions. 

2014: A Shifting Landscape, or a Look Ahead to 2018?

As soon as the municipal elections ended, speculation began to grow surrounding the 2014 presidential contest. It now seems increasingly likely that Aecio Neves will be the PSDB’s candidate, seeing that his main adversary within the party, Mr. Serra, has been effectively sidelined following his defeat. President Cardoso, the principal elder statesman of the PSDB, spoke openly after the election about the need to “renew” the party and present fresh faces and new ideas to the public. Mr. Neves traveled this week to São Paulo to meet with President Cardoso, and it seems clear that the two are already beginning to plan campaign strategy. Mr. Neves and Mr. Cardoso have defended the implementation of presidential primaries within the party, an idea proposed by Sergio Guerra, the PSDB president. That idea had been strongly resisted by supporters of Mr. Serra, who wanted to resist challenges to his leadership from within the party. It now looks increasingly likely that primaries will indeed go ahead at some point in the upcoming election cycle, with Mr. Neves as the odds-on favorite.

What is less known is whether Mr. Campos will decide to run in 2014 as the PSB candidate. The PSB is currently allied to the PT in Congress and Mr. Campos was a minister during President Lula’s government, but the numerous head-to-head contests in municipal elections have strained the bond between the two parties. For now, it is unclear whether the PSB will continue in its role as coalition ally, join forces with the opposition, or go its own way entirely. The PSDB and PSB appeared to work side-by-side in many municipal campaigns, with Mr. Neves openly supporting many PSB candidates against the PT. If the two parties decide to join forces, they would represent a formidable challenge to the PT. However, this is hard to envision seeing as both Mr. Neves and Mr. Campos appear to have presidential ambitions. Adding to the confusion is the fact that, despite its name, the Socialist Party has yet to define a clear governing philosophy, unlike the PT (center-left) and PSDB (center-right). For now, the party appears to be more opportunistic and pragmatic than ideological.

Ultimately, both Mr. Neves and Mr. Campos may really be looking to 2018 as their realistic shot to claim the presidency, and could wind up as each other’s principal opponent. Ms. Rousseff continues to enjoy a wide degree of popular support and looks likely to cruise to reelection in 2014. A recent survey showed her besting both Mr. Neves and Mr. Campos easily in the first round of voting. As I wrote in my previous piece, her position may decline somewhat if the economy continues to stall. Despite reports of an incipient recovery, growth has yet to pick up and industrial production is still weak. But unemployment remains at record lows, and the build-up to the 2014 World Cup has kept the construction industry humming along, maintaining favorable trends in the labor market. Yet it looks likely that the Workers’ Party will be in considerably weaker position by 2018, especially if the end of the World Cup causes a large bubble to pop in the real estate or consumer credit markets. (In light of sufficient dynamism in the economy due to competitive weaknesses and low productivity, the government has been increasingly relying on credit to prop up growth, which could be a recipe for disaster in the long term.) Mr. Neves and Mr. Campos may thus see 2018 as their best opportunity to claim the presidency and hope to use campaigns in 2014 to increase their national profiles.   

Of course, much could change in the next few years and it is difficult to make political predictions so far in advance. Other presidential contenders could certainly arise. One possible candidate is Eduardo Paes, the popular mayor of Rio de Janeiro from the PMDB (a centrist party currently serving in the PT coalition). Mr. Paes was reelected easily this year and is clearly hoping to use the 2016 Rio Olympics to raise his national profile, possibly laying the ground for a potential presidential run. As Brazil’s other main political party, the PMDB has not fielded its own candidate since 1994, and is thus something of a wild card in future elections. Like the PSB, it has no clear governing ideology, but may be looking to break the PT-PSDB duopoly as well, although no one is exactly sure of the party leaders’ long-term intentions.

Another main question within the PSDB is whether a failed 2014 run by Mr. Neves would raise his profile for 2018 or force him to step aside to make room for others. There are certainly other figures within the party interested in exploring a presidential run, such as Alvaro Dias, a senator from the state of Paraná, or Beto Richa, a popular state governor.

Perhaps the most notable of these contenders is Geraldo Alckmin, the current governor of São Paulo state and the PSDB’s presidential candidate in 2006. Mr. Alckmin looks unlikely to challenge Mr. Neves in 2014, as he will probably be focused on securing his reelection in São Paulo. After winning the mayoral race as well as several important contests in other municipalities in the state, the PT looks likely to make a strong run at Mr. Alckmin in 2014, aiming to end the PSDB’s dominance (it has won every statewide race since 1998). There is growing speculation that the PT candidate may be none other than former President Lula himself, who campaigned heavily in this year’s elections and has openly expressed his desire to return to politics. Like Mr. Serra, Mr. Alckmin has been a fixture on the political scene over the last decade, having twice served as governor in addition to two failed campaigns for São Paulo mayor and a failed presidential run. Mr. Serra’s overwhelming rejection by the electorate in 2012 served as a stark reminder of the public’s desire for fresh faces in local and state politics, and Mr. Alckmin will be in for a challenging campaign in 2014, especially if President Lula throws his hat into the ring. But if he is able to win a second term, he will emerge as a strong contender for the PSDB nomination for president in 2018. Of course, there is also the possibility that both the PSDB and PT could lose the governor's race in 2014. As Mr. Russomanno showed in this year's campaign, voters are itching for the chance to vote for a viable third-party candidate. In the unpredictable world of Brazilian politics, anything could happen.

Looking overall at Brazil's political landscape, it is clear that the country is moving in a positive direction, with alternation of power between moderate center-right and center-left elements. I believe that this is the most desirable political outcome, as each ideological vision brings important perspectives to the table. I have written many times on this blog about the complicated trade-off between efficiency and social inclusion, and how it represents a very complex challenge for human society. This same trade-off tends to be represented in moderate politics, with the ideological right representing efficiency and the ideological left representing social inclusion. The more that these two sides listen to each other, share perspectives and try to craft suitable public policies respecting both elements, then the better we as a society are able to address these problems.

One of the keys to the success of developed economies has been the emergence of moderate politics and the competition for ideas between right and left. In the U.S. this is represented by the struggle between Republicans and Democrats, in Britain between Tories and Labor, and in Germany between Christian Democrats and Social Democrats. Latin America has long struggled to find this moderate center, instead being torn between competing extremist visions: military dictatorships on the right and revolutionary communists on the left. As the region has developed, however, moderates have gained force and continue to grow stronger. In Brazil, first President Lula and then President Rousseff have pulled the left-wing PT more toward the center. In Colombia, President Juan Manuel Santos has also pulled his party from the right-wing toward the center and is now beginning a new round of peace talks with the radical leftist FARC. In Peru, a former radical leftist candidate, Ollanta Humala, has morphed into a moderate president, earning praise from political elements on the right (and criticism from the hard left). In Chile, conservative president Sebastian Pinera has been proposing more generous social policies in order to shore up political support from the center. In El Salvador, president Mauricio Funes from the radical left-wing FMLN has also moved his party sharply to the center, and in Mexico, president-elect Enrique Pena Nieto is working to enact a series of liberalizing reforms that are traditionally anathema to his leftist Institutional Revolutionary Party. While sharp political differences still prevail and certain countries (most notably Venezuela) continue to reject more moderate candidates, it is clear that the region is maturing politically, representing an important breakthrough in its development.