Friday, October 19, 2012

Brazil's War on Drugs: The New Incarceration Nation

Over the last several decades, the illegal drug trade has wrought havoc on Latin America. Cocaine produced in the Andean valleys of Colombia, Peru and Bolivia is transported by violent cartels to the U.S., either overland via Central America and Mexico or by boat across the Caribbean. It is also exported to Europe, normally passing first through Brazil and West Africa. Marijuana, which is also grown throughout the region, travels along these same routes. The violence and corruption caused by drug traffickers are well known, and have been major obstacles to the creation of peaceful, prosperous and democratic societies in the region.

The nature of the drug trade has changed significantly in recent years. There has been much international focus on the escalating situation in Mexico and Central America, as violence spirals out of control and governments struggle to rein in the traffickers. But there has also been another major change: the rapid growth of local consumer markets. Whereas Latin America’s primary role in the drug trade was traditionally in production and transport, it is now a major consumer as well. Nowhere has this shift been more apparent than in Brazil, which now has the largest crack market and second largest cocaine market in the world. Instead of being a transit point, Brazil is now the final destination for much of the region’s drugs. This is unwelcome news for a country already plagued by violent crime.

Brazil’s approach to its crack epidemic bears striking resemblance to the U.S. Citizens emphasize a law-and-order approach that focuses on throwing perpetrators behind bars. Since 1992, the incarceration rate has increased by 251%. (In the U.S., the increase was 46%, though from a higher baseline; the U.S. has approximately 750 prisoners per 100,000 population, while in Brazil the figure is roughly 250.) As in the U.S., the war on drugs has a very disconcerting racial component, as blacks are much more likely to end up in jail than whites. They represent over two-thirds of prisoners but only half the population. Yet this trend looks set to continue as a “tough on crime” approach has propelled many political candidates to victory in recent elections, including several ultra-conservatives recently elected to the São Paulo city council. In a 2008 opinion poll, 73% of respondents said that prison conditions should be made even tougher. (Poor blacks are just as likely to express such sentiments as rich whites.)

The surging incarceration rate is especially dangerous in Latin America, and in Brazil in particular, because it has the potential to reinforce traditional institutional weaknesses. As Brazil struggles to build an effective judiciary governed by rule of law (more on that in an upcoming post), it is still prone to police abuse, human rights violations and inhumane conditions within its facilities. Cramming more people into already overstretched prisons exacerbates the problem.

Moving toward the future, the real question is if Brazil will change course in its war on drugs. Will it follow in the U.S.’s footsteps, or take an alternative approach? Rumors of change in Latin America have been gaining steam in recent years, as politicians in Mexico, Guatemala, Chile, Colombia and Uruguay have started arguing more forcefully for decriminalization or perhaps legalization of certain drugs. Uruguay looks set to consider such a bill in its current legislative session. In Brazil, the most prominent dissenting voice has been former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso, who headed the Latin American Commission on Drugs and Democracy together with the ex-presidents of Colombia and Mexico. Cardoso has argued for a rethink of Brazil’s drug policy, suggesting that the country follow the Portuguese model of decriminalization and increased focus on public health programs

So far, few sitting politicians have taken up his call. The conservative, U.S.-style law and order approach still pervades in Brazil. However, the overall dynamic of Latin America’s approach to this issue does seem to be changing, and the debate is finally being joined in earnest. Many Latin Americans understand the illegal drug trade much better than their peers in the U.S. and Europe because they witness firsthand the side effects at every step in the process: production, transport and consumption. If a drug policy rethink does occur, it would make sense that this region would act as the pioneer. Brazil’s role in this policy shift, if it does happen, is still quite uncertain. But if its neighbors start to move in a new direction, it is difficult to imagine the country not getting swept up in the tide as well. 

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